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You can't expect Millennials and below to defend the status quo when the Boomers (speaking generally) pulled up the ladder that would allow future generations to be part of it, once they were in charge of the country.

Ironically, given her 'hero' status in the current Conservative Party, Thatcher did more than anyone to lock in that long-term drift away from conservatism.

It was the Council House sell-off, with no effort made to replace the lost housing stock.

Short term win. Long term fail.

Obviously I'm talking in UK terms here, but the absolute same thing applies in the US too, with some quirks of its own.

If you want everyone to believe in 'the American Dream' you have to let at least a few people, each generation, achieve it.

Also, as I've mentioned, the real pivot point in the attraction of the status quo slices right down the middle of Gen X.

Early Gen X got houses, pensions, free education. Late stage Gen X either didn't, or found them much harder to access/weakened.

Which is why you get more 50 somethings screaming about wokeness than 40 somethings. And why despite the Boomers ageing out of power, gradually, the situation hasn't really improved.

Because we're now in Early Gen X power period.

And why making old people pay for their own care is a MASSIVE time bomb for UK conservatism.

People are cashing in on their home value to do that. So the 'inherit your way into the status quo' path is permanently weakened now.

But yeah, if you look at this YouGov voting intention survey from 2019, you can really see that it's the middle of Gen X where the pivot away from the Conservative party comes. Not the Boomer/Gen X split, or the Gen X/Millennial split.

I really, really, wish they'd done that survey in five year, not ten year, increments.

Because I'd love to see how that 40-49 block split between 40-44 and 45-49.

That's the "beat the UK housing apocalypse" point.

Essentially if you're born in the UK after 1975, your first opportunity to buy a house hit right at the point where you needed a massive deposit and a many-times-value mortgage. If you've managed it all.

And born after 1978ish you had to pay for university in some way.

So the Xennial (i.e. late Gen X) experience is far more similar to the Millennial one than a lot of people realise. If you got on the housing ladder, it was a horrific and costly experience. And you likely either still have, or had to pay off, student loans.

So it's wrong to map age (and, indirectly, generation) to a shift to conservatism, especially in the UK.

It's all about "screw you, got mine."

And few people under 45 feel like they got theirs.

Indeed you could argue it's only people born 1937ish - 1975ish that ever 'got theirs' in the UK.

That's the only group that ever legit got the full benefits of the welfare state and a wave of national, future-focused infra/housing development.

Ironically all the Conservative Party needed to do in order to remain eternally relevant/powerful was maintain the welfare state and housing.

That had created a MASSIVE, natural pipeline of fresh blood into the status quo.

And they screwed up. Hard.

Finally, it's worth remembering that the "Boomers are deliberately selfish" thing isn't really true either.

But admitting you pulled up all the ladders is hard. And there is an ENTIRE RIGHT WING MEDIA INDUSTRY (Daily Mail etc) dedicated to convincing them they didn't.

This is why it's always about Millennials 'choosing' Netfix, or avocadoes over housing. Or about how it's immigrants that are the problem. Or 'wokeness'. Or 'waste' within vital services.

Or the EU stealing money from the NHS.

All of that has one main purpose:

To convince those who are part of the status quo that the ONLY reason those outside it don't have access to it is because they are too lazy, or because of foreigners.

It's absolutely NOT because of their own actions or voting pattern. Honest.

And that's another reason why that shift to conservatism breaks down so hard the further you push through Gen X.

Because the personal experience of being part of it weakens, and there's less of a desire to be convinced it wasn't their fault. Because it wasn't.

And by the time you hit Xennial, you're (mostly) looking at voters who feel that whatever part of the status quo they've managed to obtain was at great cost and/or luck, and can see the inequalities get worse for everyone after them.

Because ultimately this is all about participation and opportunity.

What matters isn't just being PART of the status quo. It's feeling like the OPPORTUNITY to be part of it, for oneself or for others, isn't closed off.

That's what's different for everyone born after 1975.

And not just for them. For some people older than that the issue has always been obvious. For others, as they've grown older and seen children struggle, it's BECOME obvious.

You can remove access to parts of the status quo and get away with it. But the more parts you remove, the more obvious the lack of opportunity becomes until you can't persuade people they have that opportunity, or make people feel like they obtained it fairly if they got it. /END

@garius But perhaps more interestingly for me is that I am seeing the penny start to drop with life long boomer Conservative voters who are not wealthy.

That long wait for an ambulance. The screwed up supply chains. The lack of staff in service industries. The cost of energy. The worry of care home costs that are perhaps now only 5 years away.

@danieldurrans exactly.

it's the height of irony that all they had to do was not piss about with the welfare state.

Yet that's what they did.